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Hot Sunday; The chance of showers/thunderstorms is highest in the afternoon/evening

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Saturday was a good day to be on or near a lake.

Our Saturday high temperature in Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 88 degrees. That’s five degrees warmer than our average July 30 high in the Twin Cities. Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin saw highs in the 80s, and a few places in west-central Minnesota, including Appleton, Wheaton and Fergus Falls, reached 90 degrees.

Hot high temperatures will be with us again on Sunday, with many spots reaching the upper 80s and a few lower 90s in southwestern Minnesota:

Highs expected on Sunday

National Weather Service

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 90 somewhere in the Twin Cities metro area on Sunday afternoon.

Dewpoints will be in the sticky 60s on Sunday afternoon:

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Sunday 1 p.m. dew point forecast

National Weather Service

Back to the forecast highs, the Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the low 80s on Monday, followed by the mid-90s on Tuesday then the low 90s on Wednesday, the high 80s on Thursday and the low 90s on Friday.

It looks like the warm temperatures will persist next weekend into the start of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong trend of above normal temperatures in the upper Midwest from August 5-9:

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Temperature outlook for August 5 to August 9

NWS Climate Prediction Center

Chances of thunderstorm

A few locations in northern Minnesota and west-central Minnesota may see an isolated downpour or storm overnight Saturday evening.

A few scattered showers and an isolated storm will be possible Sunday morning in roughly the northwestern half of Minnesota. A cool front and disturbances at high altitude should generate a lot of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chance early Sunday afternoon is expected to be mostly in northern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota, then scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout Minnesota and western Wisconsin later Sunday afternoon through to Sunday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Sunday through 11 p.m. Sunday:

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NAM simulated radar Sunday noon to Sunday 11 p.m.

NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows slightly different thunderstorm coverage over the same period:

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HRRR simulated radar noon Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday

NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News Network, and you can see updated weather information on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe Weather Outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded in yellow) of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening for significant portions of central and southern Minnesota and parts of west-central Wisconsin:

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Outlook for severe weather Sunday and Sunday evening

NWS Storm Prediction Center

A marginal risk of severe weather (dark green) covers most of the rest of Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin.

Low risk means scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk means an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

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Severe Weather Hazard Categories

NWS Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center will update severe weather forecasts later in the evening and on Sunday.

Weather nugget

Through Friday, the July rainfall total at MSP Airport was 2.64 inches below normal. Since June 1, precipitation at MSP Airport has been 6.09 inches below normal.